Course Readings

Topic 1: Overview of Surveys and Research Design
[1] Weisberg, Herbert F., and Jon A. Krosnick, and Bruce D. Bowen (1989). An Introduction to Research and Data Analysis. Chapter 1.
[2] Kolata, Gina (2006). Low-Fat Diet Does Not Cut Health Risks, Study Shows.

Topic 2: Sampling
[1] Weisberg, Herbert F., and Jon A. Krosnick, and Bruce D. Bowen (1989). An Introduction to Research and Data Analysis. Chapter 3.
[2] Squire, Peverill (1988). Why the Literary Digest Poll Failed. Public Opinion Quarterly 52:125-133.
[3] Mystery Pollster FAQ: Are Polls Missing People with Mobile Phones.
[4] Pew Research: Two Out of Every Five Households Have Only Wireless Phones.

Topic 3: Descriptive Statistics
[1] Agresti, Alan, and Barbara Finlay (1997). Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences. Chapter 2, Section 1, and Chapter 3.

Topic 4: Sampling Error
[1] Agresti, Alan, and Barbara Finlay (1997). Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences. Chapters 5 and 6.
[2] Mystery Pollster FAQ - What Does the "Margin of Error" Mean?

Topic 5: Nonresponse
[1] Mystery Pollster FAQ - Should We Weight by Party ID?
[2] Newport, Frank (2006). Gallup Position on Weighting and Entire Sample to Reflect a Target Distribution of Party Identification.
[3] Groves, Robert M., Floyd J. Fowler, Jr., Mick P. Cooper, James M. Lepkowski, Eleanor Singer, and Roger Tourangeau (2004). Survey Methodology. Chapter 6.
[4] Beriksky, Adam J. American Public Opinion in the 1930's and 1940's: The Analysis of Quota Controlled Sample Survey Data. Public Opinion Quarterly 70:499-529.
[5] Keeter, Scott, Carolyn Miller, Andrew Kohut, Robert M. Groves, and Stanley Presser (2000). Consequences of Reducing Nonresponse in a National Telephone Survey. Public Opinion Quarterly 2:125-148.
[6] Tutorial on Weighting.

Topic 6: Likely Voters
[1] Mystery Pollster Likely Voters FAQ.
[2] Erikson, Robert S., Costas Panagopoulos, and Christopher Wlezien (2004). Likely (and Unlikely ) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics. Public Opinion Quarterly 68:588-601.

Topic 7: Questionnaire Design
[1] Fowler, Fowler J., Jr. (1995). Improving Survey Questions: Design and Evaluation. Chapters 1-4.
[2] Groves, Robert M., Floyd J. Fowler, Jr., Mick P. Cooper, James M. Lepkowski, Eleanor Singer, and Roger Tourangeau (2004). Survey Methodology. Chapter 7.
[3] Online Gambling Myths and Facts.
[4] Mystery Pollster Analysis of Online Gambling Myths and Facts.
[5] Another Gambling Poll.

Topic 8: Adjusting Polls and Predicting Elections
[1] Political Arithmetik Posts on House Effects.

Topic 9: Exit Polls
[1] Mystery Pollster Exit Polls FAQ.
[2] Freeman, Steven (2004). The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy. Working Paper.
[3] Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004.
[4] Leaked Exit Polls 1.
[5] Leaked Exit Polls 2.
[6] Leaked Exit Polls 3.
[7] Leaked Exit Polls 4.
[8] Leaked Exit Polls 5.

Topic 10: Internet Polls
[1] Malhotra, Neil, and Jon A. Krosnick (2007). The Effect of Survey Mode and Sampling on Inferences about Political Attitudes and Behavior: Comparing the 2000 and 2004 ANES to Internet Surveys with Nonprobability Samples. Political Analysis 15:286-323.
[2] Polimetrix Methodology.
[3] Harris Interactive Methodology.

Topic 11: Assessing the Accuracy of Pre-election Polls
[1] Mystery Pollster - Do Undecided Voters Break for the Challenger.
[2] Mystery Pollster - Why Do Polls Show Contradictory Results.
[3] The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect.
[4] Hopkins, Daniel (2009). No More Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: When and Why Polls Mislead about Black and Female Candidates. Journal of Politics 71:769-781.